jump to navigation

The Last Time 17/02/2017

Posted by zoidion in History, Photography, Weather.
Tags: , , , , , , , , ,
add a comment

img_7487

Twin Cities ephemera: Only in the shady places do any remnants of December’s snows persist, as the air temperature reached sixty degrees.

As I walked about my errand-route, wearing a cap for shade rather than a hat for warmth, I found myself breaking into a sweat: I was wearing one too many layers under my light jacket. 

The physical sensation is accompanied by a peculiar mental one, since the solar arc remains rather low, and daylight is still fairly short. Hard to believe is that this day is only two months since the winter solstice.

In the back yard, several whorls of mullein look as if they are about to don their furry green coats and begin photosynthesis for their second (seed-producing) season. Birds are more active and noisy, chattering and fussing as they perch, hidden, within cedar hedges.

New high-temperature records for the date have been set across southern Minnesota, and the techno-weather forecasters say that more will follow over the next several days.

How rare is this? Well, this is only the fifth time that temperatures have reached sixty degrees here in February, going back to 1873.

The last time there was an extended warm spell here in February, the year was 1981, when six consecutive days registered temperatures of fifty or higher. That period began in the week that included the Full Moon, and as Sol crossed the horizon of the season chart: the axis that relates to latitude.

caping1980_1qfeb1981

Notice that in the outer ring (the first quarter Moon chart) Sol is with the upper meridian symbol (the circle with vertical line). That is a signal for a significant shift in temperature, especially as Luna approached opposition: Indeed, the first record-setting day that year was 16 February, as Luna moved into warm/dry Leo, the zoidion opposite Sol in Aquarius.

Also, Mars — a reliable indicator of warmer and drier conditions — had also recently crossed the horizon.

Not only was the upper meridian for the lunation in the place of the ascendant (shown as the circle with horizontal line) in the season chart, but there was another reversal: the horizon for the lunation opposite the upper meridian for the season. Hence a reversal of seasonal expectations.

And now? The Full Moon chart (the outer ring below) has a similar reversal in relation to the season chart: its upper meridian opposite the season’s ascendant, and the ascendant conjunct the season’s upper meridian.

caping2016_fmfeb2017

This time the warmth has arrived as Luna arrives at the ascendant of the season chart, and as Mars crosses the midpoint between lower meridian and horizon.

Watch for even greater temperature anomalies as Mars closes the distance from Uranus, and opposes Jupiter, in the days around the solar eclipse on 26 February. And watch for greater outbursts in the heating-up political realm as well. (Brazil is a particular hotspot in this period.)

-<zoidion>-

Indexing Weather 11/01/2017

Posted by zoidion in forecast, History, Photography, Weather.
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
2 comments

fullmooneye

Twin Cities ephemera: The past several days have brought several Alberta clippers — several-hour-long snowfalls riding the winds out of Alberta —totaling about eight inches of snow. Fairly typical for January in these parts. Definitely a nuisance and a danger for commuting.

As the weather pattern passes and the sky clears, the temperature will likely drop below zero again: typical, in my experience, when there’s a full moon in Cancer.

At least these conditions are fairly normal. Unlike heavy rain in the Sierra Nevadas and heavy snow and severe cold in southern Europe.

As you may be aware, weather geeks are continually coming up with new terms for timeless phenomena. (The practice, presumably, helps justify funding and continued employment.)

Since this meteorological winter — which started at the beginning of December — is nearly at its halfway point, it’s time for the geeks to refer to the Weather Misery Index, applicable to either winter or summer.

According to the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, the winter WMI is reckoned thus: “The WMI assigns single points for daily counts of maximum temperatures 10 degrees F or colder, and daily minimums of 0 degrees F or colder. If the minimum temperature drops to -20 degrees or colder greater, eight points are attributed to that day. Snowfall totals of one inch or greater in a day receive one point. Four-inch snowfalls generate four points for the day, an eight-inch snowfall receives a whopping 16 points. The duration of a winter is quantified using the number of days the snow depth is 12 inches or greater.”

As of January 10, 2017 the WMI for the 2016-17 winter is at 41 points: 19 points for cold, 22 points for snow. This is enough for this winter to be in the “mild” category. Fourteen more points are needed for this winter to be categorized as “moderate.” The WMI for the winter of 2015-16 finished with 47 points, enough for 2014-15 to be categorized as a “mild” winter. The WMI points for the 2015-2016 winter were 18 for cold and 29 snow: 46 points. The winter of 2016-17 should easily pass last winter in points. The WMI for the winter of 2013-14 in Twin Cities was 207 points, or in the high end of the “severe winter” category.  This was the ninth most severe winter on record based on WMI points. The lowest WMI score was the winter of 2011-2012 with 16 points. The most severe winter is 1916-1917 with 305 WMI points. Note, this could also be called the “Winter Fun Index” depending on your perspective!

I have some vivid memories of that winter of 2013-14. Some are white-knuckle: driving round-trip solo to Detroit to help a friend in an emergency, negotiating snowstorms both ways. Some more peaceful and contemplative: walking, morning and evening, from late January to early March, a labyrinth I stamped out in the deep backyard snow.

That winter, in my experience, deservedly ranks high, obviously for a lot of snow. But that winter of a century ago: I don’t regret missing that.

According to available records, here in the Twin Cities there was at least six inches of snow on the ground from 24 December 1916 to 24 March 1917 — uh, that’s three full months — with a peak of thirty-one inches on 16 March. (It sure took a while for that higher sun angle to eat away at the snowpack.) Seventy-four inches of snow fell altogether: double the local average.

The temperature side of the index was also nasty: fourteen minimum temperatures below zero in December, fifteen in January, nineteen in February, and seven minima of twenty below or lower.

Okay, what are the astro-meteorological indications?

The main ones pop right out: Luna and Venus in the crucial lower meridian position at the time of the Capricorn solar ingress.

cp-ing_1916

Those are reliable indicators of abundant moisture, especially when both are in a zoidion (aka “sign”) of the watery triplicity, in this case Scorpio. This is a special case, though: Both Luna and Venus are “problematic” (in the system of planetary “dignities”) in that zoidion noted for extreme conditions and situations, and in relation to winter temperature, definitely cold.

Eclipses also marked the first month of the season: a partial solar eclipse on 24 December, a total lunar eclipse on 8 January, and a second partial solar eclipse on 23 January. That’s a bit of information to add to the bucket, in view of a pattern of mild weather into early December, later than usual (back then).

Also, testing the full-moon-in-Cancer observation: The full moon / lunar eclipse was followed, two days later, by the start of a week of below-zero weather.

Notably, the most bitter weather came in the first week of February, following the first-quarter-moon, at which time the meridian and horizon matched those in the season chart.

cp-ing-1916_1q-jan-1917

For folks around here that year, as temperatures at last reached the forties, the spring equinox just may have been celebrated with dancing in the streets.

-<zoidion>-

Into the Ruins

The best in deindustrial, post-industrial, and post-peak science fiction

gaylaellis

photos and words

Demystifying the Aquarian Age

© Copyright Terry MacKinnell All Rights Reserved

Through Open Lens

Home of Lukas Kondraciuk Photography

Family Yields

one family's approach to permaculture

Stormstalker

The weather junkie's fix.

ClubOrlov

Reports and Musings about Weather, Climate and the Long Emergency

weathersage

Home of Long Range Weather Forecasting

Small Batch Garden

Reports and Musings about Weather, Climate and the Long Emergency

Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network

Reports and Musings about Weather, Climate and the Long Emergency

Autonomy Acres

Tales From the Anthropocene * Urban Homesteading * Permaculture * DIY Living * Citizen Science

Turkeysong

Experimental Homestead

Paul Douglas Weather Column

Reports and Musings about Weather, Climate and the Long Emergency

22 Billion Energy Slaves

Reports and Musings about Weather, Climate and the Long Emergency

Strong Towns Media - Strong Towns

Reports and Musings about Weather, Climate and the Long Emergency

The view from Brittany

Reports and Musings about Weather, Climate and the Long Emergency

The Archdruid Report

Reports and Musings about Weather, Climate and the Long Emergency

%d bloggers like this: